Scheduled events that historically move crypto markets. Each entry links to its primary source. Historical patterns are observed averages, not predictions.
Historically tied to ±2-5% moves in BTC/ETH
8:30 ET release. Headline + core YoY drives Fed expectations. Hot print typically pressures risk-on assets including crypto.
Last 6 CPI surprise releases: ±1.8% BTC move within 2 hours of release on hotter/cooler than consensus prints.
Rate decision announcement at 14:00 ET on day 2, followed by Powell presser at 14:30 ET.
Last 12 FOMC meetings: BTC daily range expanded ±3.2% within 48h of announcement (TradingView). Dovish surprises tend to lift crypto risk assets; hawkish surprises compress.
Mid-month CPI print.
See CPI general pattern.
Multiple issuers (VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise) have spot SOL ETF applications. Final SEC deadline for approval/denial.
Spot BTC ETF approval (Jan 2024) preceded ATH within 60 days. Spot ETH ETF approval (May 2024) saw immediate +20% then 30-day consolidation. Pattern is not universal.
Second FOMC meeting of summer. Watch dot plot updates.
See FOMC general pattern.
Multiple issuers (BlackRock, Fidelity) seeking staking permission on spot ETH ETFs. Approval would unlock additional yield, attracting capital.
Staking-enabled spot products in other markets have seen 1.5-3x AUM growth vs non-staking variants.
Block subsidy drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Predictable supply event ~876 days out.
Past halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024): cycle peaks within 12-18 months post-halving. Returns diminishing each cycle (+9050%, +2950%, +650%, +160% over a 300-day window from prior halving).
Narrative catalysts, supply events, sector moves
First Friday of the month, 8:30 ET. Strong job growth = Fed hold expectations stronger = less liquidity for crypto.
Strong NFP beats correlated with -1.2% avg BTC reaction in 4h window (last 12 months).
Pectra brings EIP-7702 (account abstraction enhancements), validator efficiency upgrades. Date is approximate, depends on testnet stability.
Last 4 mainnet upgrades (Shapella, Cancun, Dencun, Verkle prep) saw avg ETH +6.4% in 7 days post-activation. Sample small.
31.6M OP unlocking to early investors + core contributors. ~4.2% of circulating supply. Past unlocks have been distributed to OTC, not all hit spot market.
Last 5 OP cliff unlocks: avg -8.4% in 7 days post-unlock (Token Unlocks tracker). Funding has typically remained neutral pre-unlock.
Largest US exchange. Trading volume + Base ecosystem TVL provide industry health benchmark.
COIN earnings beats produced avg +3.1% BTC same-week move (last 8 quarters).
Crypto/stablecoin regulation often on the agenda. Communique language can move markets.
Past G20 communiques mentioning crypto regulation produced avg -2.1% BTC move in 24h, recovering within 5 days.
Largest Asian crypto conference. Major announcements typically cluster here.
Last 3 Token2049 events: meme coins + Asian-narrative tokens (e.g. JTO, SUI) saw avg +14% during conference week.
Worth tracking but rarely market-moving alone
Monthly recurring unlock to community + foundation. ~24.8M APT.
APT monthly unlocks tend to be priced in. Avg ±2% move on unlock day.
BTC treasury accounting. Disclosure of new BTC purchases drives short-term sentiment.
MSTR earnings days: BTC +0.8% avg same-day move when MSTR announces buy; -0.4% when no buy announced.
Major North American crypto conference. Regulatory & institutional panels.
Limited direct price impact, but narrative catalyst week.
Observable, not predictive. Every event is a publicly-known schedule (SEC filing, FOMC calendar, on-chain vesting contract). We surface the schedule and contextualize with historical pattern data. We don't tell you what to do.
Historical pattern ≠ guarantee. Past averages don't bind future moves. Sample sizes are usually small. Treat as one input, not the input.
Verify everything. Click the source link on each event. If our context contradicts the primary source, the primary source wins. Tell us if we got it wrong.
