Scheduled events that historically move crypto markets. Each entry links to its primary source. Historical patterns are observed averages, not predictions.
Historically tied to ±2-5% moves in BTC/ETH
Block subsidy drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Predictable supply event ~876 days out.
Past halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024): cycle peaks within 12-18 months post-halving. Returns diminishing each cycle (+9050%, +2950%, +650%, +160% over a 300-day window from prior halving).
Narrative catalysts, supply events, sector moves
Crypto/stablecoin regulation often on the agenda. Communique language can move markets.
Past G20 communiques mentioning crypto regulation produced avg -2.1% BTC move in 24h, recovering within 5 days.
Largest Asian crypto conference. Major announcements typically cluster here.
Last 3 Token2049 events: meme coins + Asian-narrative tokens (e.g. JTO, SUI) saw avg +14% during conference week.
Worth tracking but rarely market-moving alone
Major North American crypto conference. Regulatory & institutional panels.
Limited direct price impact, but narrative catalyst week.
What happened. For reference and pattern verification
Multiple issuers (BlackRock, Fidelity) seeking staking permission on spot ETH ETFs. Approval would unlock additional yield, attracting capital.
Staking-enabled spot products in other markets have seen 1.5-3x AUM growth vs non-staking variants.
Largest US exchange. Trading volume + Base ecosystem TVL provide industry health benchmark.
COIN earnings beats produced avg +3.1% BTC same-week move (last 8 quarters).
BTC treasury accounting. Disclosure of new BTC purchases drives short-term sentiment.
MSTR earnings days: BTC +0.8% avg same-day move when MSTR announces buy; -0.4% when no buy announced.
31.6M OP unlocking to early investors + core contributors. ~4.2% of circulating supply. Past unlocks have been distributed to OTC, not all hit spot market.
Last 5 OP cliff unlocks: avg -8.4% in 7 days post-unlock (Token Unlocks tracker). Funding has typically remained neutral pre-unlock.
Second FOMC meeting of summer. Watch dot plot updates.
See FOMC general pattern.
Observable, not predictive. Every event is a publicly-known schedule (SEC filing, FOMC calendar, on-chain vesting contract). We surface the schedule and contextualize with historical pattern data. We don't tell you what to do.
Historical pattern ≠ guarantee. Past averages don't bind future moves. Sample sizes are usually small. Treat as one input, not the input.
Verify everything. Click the source link on each event. If our context contradicts the primary source, the primary source wins. Tell us if we got it wrong.
